Stuttgart Transfer Analysis — How They Bounced Back
A year after dropping down to the 2. Bundesliga, Stuttgart is back in the top German division — topping the second tier with 69 points. Their approach to the transfer market has been a major part of the process of bouncing back and I decided to take a deeper look at it.
(All radars provided by my friend @biffmila from @brasilradar on Twitter, give him a look if you’re interested in analytics and/or Brazilian football)
As with any other team that goes down, they had to sell — not necessarily due to financial reasons as much as due to certain high profile players that have high market interest not being open to play in a lower tier. They cashed out in the team’s best performers — with Kostic moving to Hamburg, the versatile Rupp making the jump to Hoffenheim and star attacking mid Didavi — who had signed for Wolfsburg on a free already in January 2016. Timo Werner had a pretty underwhelming season and jumped onto the RBL bandwagon (we all know how that one ended up) and, on top of that, Roma signed Rudiger to a permanent deal. Several other first teamers left for smaller amounts which helped free up and space in the wage budget.
The club made over 40M€ which, combined with the fact that the club really isn’t in bad financial shape at all, makes me appreciate their thoughtful investment even more. Now don’t get me wrong, the team went into the 2.Bundesliga as the favourite and spent a relative large amount for the league — but did so in a balanced, clever way, building what is basically Bundesliga ready team that now only needs slight upgrades and/or to invest in prospects.
Simon Terodde who had scored 25 for Bochum the previous season was brought in to play up top and confirmed his status in the division by scoring 25 yet again. He might be somewhat one dimensional but they couldn’t get much better to lead the line, even more so for only 3M€.
To support him from wide, a 22 year old Carlos Mané was loaned in for two seasons — another statement of the club’s intent of being back in the top tier as quickly as possible. Going from the inconsistent creative source he was at Sporting CP to quite the complete winger, up until his season ending injury. While under Marco Silva he seemed to be the next talent breaking through at Sporting, the following season he played only around 350’ league minutes, the Germans took advantage of it. Amidst the league jump and the lack of pre-season — since his injury is still holding him back — I don’t expect him to return to this level quickly but, in case he does, Stuttgart have the option to buy at the end of the season.
The most expensive signing of last season proved to be a smart investment as well. Stuttgart paid 5M€ to Lille for Benjamin Pavard. Versatile enough to play CB and RB, he’s ideally a ball-playing Centre-Back and a good one at that. Taking advantage of the fact the had only played 600’ Ligue 1 the season before, they lured him to Germany where he gained importance despite being slightly injury-prone. Centre-Backs who are good at picking out a pass are in vogue and, at 21, the club will surely make a fair chunk of money on him. Oh and he can do things like this:
Not everyone was perfect: neither Grgic nor Zimmer got to a 1000’ league minutes, despite the 2M€ investment in each, but they’re both young enough to still be useful options — financially and playing wise. In January three, new signing’s came in. Julian Green joined after playing only 4 matches for Bayern’s main team despite being 22 already (+ 109’ on a loan deal to Hamburg) but for 300k it’s pretty much a no-brainer. He’s talented — his ceiling won’t be a Bayern levels but still — and US players can be important marketing-wise. Now I don’t know enough about Onguéné to make a proper judgement — neither do I have the data to give us any idea of him — but Ofori is a very interesting one. In his 2016 Allsvenskan season he proved he had the basis to be a complete midfielder and he could very well turn some heads in the Bundesliga.
With these last two windows coupled with the players that have been with the club for longer, Stuttgart don’t need to change much this summer for their approach to the Bundesliga. The buys have been minimal but have made a lot of sense. Ron-Robert Zieler was always solid for Hannover and is an upgrade on Langerak, so he returns to his country for only 4M€ after a swift passage through Leicester’s bench. Akolo is a 22 year old wide forward, who can also play up top, who scored 15 for Sion (along with 5 assists): at 6M€ the price might be questionable but I could very well see it working, the Swiss league to Bundesliga route often works and the eye test seems positive — all I have at the moment, which also means the club is exploring untapped markets.
The last arrival to be analysed is Ailton, from Estoril. Among all great full-backs in Portugal this past season, Ailton was one of the best ones… but also one of the least hyped, which perfectly sums up Stuttgart’s transfer work — he costed only 1M€. Very solid defensively and with an okay offensive output for a team that’s not passing-heavy. He’ll be the second option to Insua if the Argentine doesn’t move until the end of the window. If he does Ailton will have more pressure on him than I expected but expect that price to be very worth it. The big teams in Portugal sell for such high fees that a lot of clubs seem of to forget that the smaller ones are in an awful financial position and will take offers like this, often selling cheaper than certain second divisions.
Selling Maxim means they likely still need a creative force — something which I don’t think Arsenal loanee Asano brings to the table. Barring that, their squad is close to completion and I truly believe they’ve been one of the most underrated teams in the last few transfer windows. I don’t know this but, like a ton of German clubs, I wouldn’t be surprised if the club has an analytics department that has a significant impact within recruitment. The players brought in are young, talented and hungry to succeed, often going from part players in other clubs to key pieces here. This, coupled with the exploration of smaller, almost untapped markets — like Ligue 2, Switzerland, Scandinavia or even the smaller teams in Portugal that I keep talking about –, gives them an approach that will help push the club to success soon enough.
